5/8/2021

My Dear Friend & POTUS, JRB,

I am wondering about inflation. According to Henry Olsen’s Op piece in the WP, it’s on its way. As you well know, lumber prices are up.  Oil prices are up. Food prices are, too. We’ve got a lot of $$ in the system & pent-up demand. We don’t need any more stimulus checks.

Baby Boomers know that inflation hurts. We lived through 1981when mortgage rates were 18.45%. When I graduated in 1982, corporations were not hiring trainees so I was uneasy when I got an email this week from Dartmouth College indicating that this year’s graduates were having a hard time getting jobs.  

As I contemplate inflation, I am reminded of my affection for economics. I only discovered it in my last year of undergrad so I did not pursue the field, but the combination of math & social studies had its appeal. Today I am engrossed in all of the different ways one can measure the health of the labor market. Do you prefer the Employment to Population Ratio or the Labor Force Participation rate? We usually just hear about the unemployment rate, but that only takes into account active job seekers. In any case, the jobs report has everyone scratching their heads. Heather Long of the NYT thinks that people are reassessing their careers.

If you are intrigued by inflation you might be interested in an article in the G today entitled, “Are There Too Many People?: All Bets are Off” which reports on a bet between an economist & a demographer about whether food prices would go up or down from 2011 – 2021. They wanted to see if food production could outpace population growth. Food prices did go up showing that our capacity to feed the people on our planet is questionable. The solutions to this problem include a) promoting “the small family ethic” b) eating less meat & c) driving less. Let’s spread the news.

Please call Willie Mays & wish him a happy 90th & join the monks of Mandalay in praying for Burma.

BYBS,